Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 799 Southwest	PDX 05:21	MDW 11:27	6%	1%	1.0%	no record
WN 3320 Southwest	PDX 23:34	MDW 05:40	12%	3%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359	1h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 07:30 → MDW 09:11DL 4712 · flown by Endeavor	6h 38m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:44 → MDW 22:47DL 1076	9h 10m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	PDX 06:35 → ATL 14:14DL 662	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	7h 40m	92%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON