tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:30, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 889 Alaska PDX 07:05 OGG 09:43 14% 3% 0.6% no record
AS 353 Alaska Flight history → PDX 17:45 OGG 20:40 17% 4% 0.6% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 14m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → OGG 10:45UA 2010 8h 30m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:15 → SEA 12:30DL 3818 · flown by SkyWest 2h 29m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 9h 41m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 29m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 13h 05m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 23m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813 2h 32m Honolulu HNL 16:00 → OGG 16:53AS 1436 9h 23m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:59 → SFO 15:10UA 751 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 9h 18m 90% 76%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:31 → KOA 10:17AS 252 2h 34m Kailua/Kona KOA 12:51 → OGG 13:28AS 1149 8h 57m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:20 → PHX 08:00AA 2658 3h 03m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 12h 12m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 48m Seattle SEA 08:05 → OGG 11:19AS 245 8h 00m 50% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON