Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2094 at 00:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 2094 PDX 00:01 → ORD 05:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2515 PDX 13:17 → ORD 19:33 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2094 United Flight history →	PDX 00:01	ORD 05:53	11%	4%	1.1%	90%
AA 1713 American	PDX 05:58	ORD 12:06	14%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 1813 American	PDX 22:52	ORD 05:01	19%	11%	0.9%	no record
UA 2306 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ORD 13:13	20%	7%	1.3%	91%worse than usual
UA 2822 United	PDX 08:24	ORD 14:30	23%	14%	1.3%	no record
AS 324 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ORD 13:13	29%	9%	1.7%	74%
UA 2266 United	PDX 14:15	ORD 20:25	30%	13%	0.9%	no record
UA 1923 United	PDX 10:45	ORD 16:50	31%	15%	1.0%	no record
AA 2515 American Flight history →	PDX 13:17	ORD 19:33	34%	14%	1.0%	82%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON