tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 00:33, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1776 Alaska Flight history → PDX 06:52 PHL 14:57 12% 3% 0.8% 91%
AA 1659 American PDX 08:40 PHL 16:57 22% 6% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 21m Minneapolis MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688 7h 11m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 55m San Francisco SFO 08:56 → PHL 17:37UA 2824 9h 22m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:15UA 780 1h 20m Houston IAH 07:35 → PHL 12:14UA 2203 9h 06m 92% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:01 → ORD 05:53UA 2094 1h 03m Chicago ORD 06:56 → PHL 10:07UA 2856 7h 06m 90% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 19:28 → SFO 21:24UA 2615 1h 56m San Francisco SFO 23:20 → PHL 07:50 +1UA 2854 9h 22m 93% 77%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 41m Denver DEN 10:12 → PHL 16:05UA 1575 8h 05m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 47m Salt Lake City SLC 11:20 → PHL 17:39DL 2022 8h 54m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:50 → SEA 18:59DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Seattle SEA 21:20 → PHL 05:29 +1DL 1114 8h 39m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PDX 11:55 → DFW 17:45AA 2655 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242 8h 02m 60% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON