Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 5904 PHL 08:52 → ALB 10:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5823 PHL 17:59 → ALB 19:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5904 Piedmont	PHL 08:52	ALB 10:11	16%	4%	1.2%	no record
PT 5922 Piedmont	PHL 13:21	ALB 14:44	18%	6%	1.1%	no record
PT 6091 Piedmont	PHL 15:41	ALB 16:52	22%	7%	1.2%	no record
PT 5796 Piedmont	PHL 22:04	ALB 23:22	22%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 5877 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 20:07	ALB 21:36	23%	10%	1.4%	82%
AA 5823 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 17:59	ALB 19:14	25%	8%	1.2%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON