Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5868 at 08:33 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5868 PHL 08:33 → BUF 09:54 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest PT 6117 PHL 22:17 → BUF 23:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5868 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 08:33	BUF 09:54	14%	3%	1.3%	82%
PT 5800 Piedmont	PHL 11:14	BUF 12:38	18%	4%	1.2%	no record
PT 5935 Piedmont	PHL 16:15	BUF 17:39	22%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 5870 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 17:34	BUF 18:56	25%	8%	1.4%	56%
PT 6117 Piedmont	PHL 22:17	BUF 23:25	26%	9%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON