Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


PT 5855 Piedmont	PHL 10:12	CAE 12:23	17%	4%	1.6%	no record
AA 5882 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 15:37	CAE 17:30	25%	8%	1.7%	88%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 10:04 → CAE 11:11DL 1590	5h 56m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 12:32 → CAE 13:39DL 2944	5h 34m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 20:07 → CAE 21:14DL 3008	6h 42m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 16:13 → CAE 17:20DL 3032	5h 18m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CAE 23:43DL 3029	6h 26m	91%	72%
American Details →	PHL 10:28 → CLT 12:11AA 847	1h 12m Charlotte	CLT 13:23 → CAE 14:27AA 5143 · flown by PSA	3h 59m	89%	69%
American Details →	PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793	3h 16m Charlotte	CLT 19:01 → CAE 19:53AA 5959 · flown by Piedmont	6h 04m	97%	69%
American Details →	PHL 16:45 → ORD 18:10AA 470	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 21:03 → CAE 00:17 +1AA 4275 · flown by Envoy	7h 32m	91%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHL 10:43 → IAD 12:07UA 6235 · flown by Mesa	52m Dulles	IAD 12:59 → CAE 14:29UA 4288 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 46m	75%	61%
Delta Details →	PHL 19:23 → ATL 21:39DL 1329	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CAE 23:43DL 3029	4h 20m	74%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON