Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 3139 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3139 PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4353 PHL 14:57 → CLT 16:36 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3139 American Flight history →	PHL 06:00	CLT 07:53	8%	3%	1.1%	94%
AA 2607 American	PHL 06:59	CLT 08:42	13%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 847 American Flight history →	PHL 10:28	CLT 12:11	16%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 2767 American	PHL 08:35	CLT 10:17	17%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 793 American Flight history →	PHL 13:49	CLT 15:45	18%	6%	0.9%	81%
F9 2387 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:50	CLT 07:36	19%	9%	1.8%	80%
AA 1859 American Flight history →	PHL 12:26	CLT 14:11	20%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 3012 American Flight history →	PHL 15:42	CLT 17:14	29%	9%	0.9%	81%worse than usual
AA 2189 American	PHL 19:37	CLT 21:21	34%	11%	1.1%	no record
F9 1327 Frontier	PHL 10:55	CLT 12:41	34%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 2074 American	PHL 17:52	CLT 19:42	34%	11%	1.0%	no record
F9 4353 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 14:57	CLT 16:36	43%	16%	1.5%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON