Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OH 5298 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–39%.

Safest bet that day OH 5298 PHL 08:53 → CVG 10:54 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5583 PHL 19:40 → CVG 21:53 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5298 PSA	PHL 08:53	CVG 10:54	23%	6%	1.3%	no record
OH 5365 PSA	PHL 13:59	CVG 15:45	32%	8%	1.6%	no record
AA 2987 American	PHL 16:31	CVG 18:24	35%	10%	1.1%	no record
OH 5337 PSA	PHL 18:16	CVG 20:26	38%	13%	3.1%	no record
AA 5583 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:40	CVG 21:53	39%	12%	2.0%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON