tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 5064 at 19:36, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5064 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 19:36 DAY 21:27 31% 17% 4.1% 81%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dayton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 09:00 → DAY 10:30DL 3108 5h 15m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 13:06 → DAY 14:41DL 2763 6h 36m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 21:41 → DAY 23:15DL 3167 7h 07m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → PHL 10:28 → CLT 12:11AA 847 3h 53m Charlotte CLT 16:04 → DAY 17:49AA 5321 · flown by PSA 7h 21m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:17 → DAY 17:50DL 3088 5h 48m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → PHL 15:42 → CLT 17:14AA 3012 3h 15m Charlotte CLT 20:29 → DAY 22:09AA 5174 · flown by PSA 6h 27m 98% 65%
AmericanDetails → PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 18:55 → DAY 20:37AA 5435 · flown by PSA 6h 48m 97% 65%
UnitedDetails → PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33UA 308 2h 56m Chicago ORD 21:29 → DAY 23:44UA 4589 · flown by GoJet 6h 44m 91% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PHL 10:43 → IAD 12:07UA 6235 · flown by Mesa 47m Dulles IAD 12:54 → DAY 14:35UA 4241 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 52m 71% 59%
UnitedDetails → PHL 09:30 → ORD 10:52UA 1811 48m Chicago ORD 11:40 → DAY 13:33UA 4594 · flown by GoJet 4h 03m 69% 48%
UnitedDetails → PHL 19:13 → ORD 20:37UA 2665 52m Chicago ORD 21:29 → DAY 23:44UA 4589 · flown by GoJet 4h 31m 48% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON