Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 1481 at 10:32, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1481 American	PHL 10:32	EYW 13:32	17%	5%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → EYW 13:05DL 1472	7h 50m	99%	84%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	1h 59m Charlotte	CLT 09:52 → EYW 12:26AA 1816	6h 26m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815	7h 49m	99%	80%
American Details →	PHL 07:14 → DFW 09:56AA 583	3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:15 → EYW 17:10AA 1767	9h 56m	100%	67%
American Details →	PHL 08:15 → MIA 11:12AA 2184	59m Miami	MIA 12:11 → EYW 13:21AA 3255	5h 06m	83%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON