Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 20–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6107 PHL 08:50 → MYR 10:39 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 6105 PHL 17:12 → MYR 19:08 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6107 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 08:50	MYR 10:39	20%	6%	5.2%	77%
PT 6038 Piedmont	PHL 13:10	MYR 15:02	21%	7%	4.8%	no record
AA 6105 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 17:12	MYR 19:08	21%	9%	4.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON