Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: PT 6129 at 09:15 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day PT 6129 PHL 09:15 → ORF 10:44 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5550 PHL 20:21 → ORF 21:38 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6129 Piedmont	PHL 09:15	ORF 10:44	23%	4%	2.5%	no record
PT 5949 Piedmont	PHL 13:52	ORF 15:03	26%	5%	2.7%	no record
OH 5216 PSA	PHL 15:46	ORF 17:03	29%	12%	1.7%	no record
AA 5375 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:00	ORF 20:22	32%	14%	2.5%	76%
OH 5550 PSA	PHL 20:21	ORF 21:38	35%	16%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON