Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3090 American Flight history →	PHL 19:49	PDX 23:21	25%	9%	1.0%	93%worse than usual
AS 1787 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 16:21	PDX 19:15	25%	7%	0.9%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	3h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 10:57 → PDX 12:34DL 1661	9h 54m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 43m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 26m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:05 → SEA 10:01DL 2092	3h 36m Seattle	SEA 13:37 → PDX 14:48DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest	10h 43m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 54m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	PHL 07:30 → SLC 10:10DL 2023	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	7h 40m	88%	78%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 19:46 → PDX 21:51DL 691	10h 19m	98%	77%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → SFO 08:58UA 2661	3h 46m San Francisco	SFO 12:44 → PDX 14:45UA 2851	11h 45m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHL 18:23 → SFO 21:33UA 1575	1h 00m San Francisco	SFO 22:33 → PDX 00:26 +1UA 8182	9h 03m	66%	50%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	49m Detroit	DTW 20:04 → PDX 21:48DL 913	7h 20m	59%	42%
American Details →	PHL 17:48 → DFW 20:37AA 2533	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:35 → PDX 23:45AA 1636	8h 57m	62%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON