Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: F9 2059 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–38%.

Safest bet that day F9 2059 PHL 05:52 → RDU 07:28 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 1517 PHL 19:16 → RDU 20:53 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2059 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:52	RDU 07:28	15%	9%	2.1%	85%
AA 3152 American	PHL 10:27	RDU 11:58	16%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1759 American	PHL 08:30	RDU 10:13	17%	4%	1.1%	no record
YX 4759 Republic	PHL 16:05	RDU 17:52	17%	8%	1.1%	no record
F9 2071 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 07:57	RDU 09:34	26%	10%	1.8%	71%
OH 5663 PSA	PHL 13:00	RDU 14:35	29%	11%	1.4%	no record
AA 2692 American	PHL 22:38	RDU 00:14	30%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 873 American	PHL 21:06	RDU 22:50	32%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 706 American Flight history →	PHL 18:27	RDU 19:58	35%	12%	0.9%	65%
F9 1517 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 19:16	RDU 20:53	38%	19%	1.7%	79%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON