Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 6055 PHL 09:55 → SDF 12:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5256 PHL 14:20 → SDF 16:14 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6055 Piedmont	PHL 09:55	SDF 12:23	15%	4%	1.2%	no record
AA 4335 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 21:19	SDF 23:18	21%	8%	1.7%	63%
OH 5256 PSA	PHL 14:20	SDF 16:14	25%	12%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON