Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2092 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 2092 PHL 07:05 → SEA 10:01 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AS 443 PHL 18:39 → SEA 21:25 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2092 Delta Flight history →	PHL 07:05	SEA 10:01	17%	4%	1.0%	72%
AA 2870 American Flight history →	PHL 08:29	SEA 11:48	19%	4%	0.9%	83%
AS 370 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 07:21	SEA 10:21	24%	5%	1.2%	65%
AA 1823 American	PHL 19:42	SEA 22:48	35%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 1398 American	PHL 18:05	SEA 21:00	38%	10%	1.0%	no record
AS 443 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 18:39	SEA 21:25	39%	10%	1.1%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	8h 19m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 11:17 → SEA 13:26DL 629	8h 21m	88%	75%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	1h 25m Detroit	DTW 12:56 → SEA 14:43DL 728	7h 57m	95%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON