Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2758 American	PHL 12:53	SRQ 15:35	22%	9%	4.4%	no record
OH 5136 PSA	PHL 10:31	SRQ 13:20	24%	7%	2.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → SRQ 12:25DL 3104	7h 10m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	7h 28m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 13:39 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115	7h 17m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → SRQ 21:31DL 1057	6h 59m	98%	80%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	3h 29m Charlotte	CLT 11:22 → SRQ 13:25AA 3328	7h 25m	99%	77%
American Details →	PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793	3h 33m Charlotte	CLT 19:18 → SRQ 21:14AA 5348 · flown by PSA	7h 25m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	5h 15m	95%	76%
American Details →	PHL 17:51 → MIA 20:49AA 3306	2h 05m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	6h 08m	87%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON