Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5866 at 13:12 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 5866 PHL 13:12 → TYS 15:06 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest G4 3049 PHL 19:20 → TYS 21:15 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5866 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 13:12	TYS 15:06	13%	5%	1.4%	73%
OH 5212 PSA	PHL 08:44	TYS 10:45	17%	7%	1.5%	no record
OH 5161 PSA	PHL 15:50	TYS 17:33	25%	11%	1.6%	no record
AA 5352 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 18:26	TYS 20:40	25%	12%	2.4%	77%
G4 3049 Allegiant	PHL 19:20	TYS 21:15	29%	13%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON