Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5543 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:28	XNA 12:31	19%	7%	1.5%	80%
AA 5628 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:38	XNA 21:55	26%	11%	1.5%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 07:14 → DFW 09:56AA 583	2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:45 → XNA 14:04AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 50m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → XNA 09:36DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	5h 21m	96%	81%
American Details →	PHL 17:07 → DFW 19:40AA 2356	2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:30 → XNA 23:47AA 3693 · flown by Envoy	7h 40m	98%	78%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 09:01 → XNA 10:35AA 5446 · flown by PSA	5h 35m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	1h 27m Detroit	DTW 15:47 → XNA 17:09DL 4889 · flown by Endeavor	5h 33m	92%	77%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → XNA 00:02 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	7h 45m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → XNA 22:12DL 1864	7h 04m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 19:32 → XNA 20:29DL 1710	6h 57m	97%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PHL 17:48 → DFW 20:37AA 2533	1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:40 → XNA 23:03AA 4101 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	67%	53%
American Details →	PHL 15:42 → CLT 17:14AA 3012	51m Charlotte	CLT 18:05 → XNA 19:36AA 4087 · flown by Envoy	4h 54m	64%	46%
American Details →	PHL 16:45 → ORD 18:10AA 470	48m Chicago	ORD 18:58 → XNA 20:47AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	5h 02m	40%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON