tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 11:52, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 28% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 95 Alaska PHX 18:12 ANC 22:59 25% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 1 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHX 15:54 → SEA 19:02DL 2449 2h 44m Seattle SEA 21:46 → ANC 00:35 +1DL 936 9h 41m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374 1h 46m Seattle SEA 14:16 → ANC 17:06DL 928 8h 47m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → PHX 12:15 → SEA 15:25DL 2419 2h 02m Seattle SEA 17:27 → ANC 20:10DL 2367 8h 55m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 12:37 → SEA 15:38AS 609 3h 23m Seattle SEA 19:01 → ANC 21:43AS 582 10h 06m 99% 69%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 14:37 → SEA 17:32AS 611 3h 21m Seattle SEA 20:53 → ANC 23:36AS 711 9h 59m 98% 69%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 08:01 → SEA 10:50AS 645 3h 50m Seattle SEA 14:40 → ANC 17:16AS 99 10h 15m 98% 68%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 11:52 → SEA 14:34AS 637 2h 15m Seattle SEA 16:49 → ANC 19:26AS 85 8h 34m 95% 68%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:27 → DEN 16:21UA 709 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:11 → ANC 23:01UA 280 10h 34m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PHX 10:54 → PDX 13:38AS 511 52m Portland PDX 14:30 → ANC 17:16AS 1406 7h 22m 74% 60%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 09:18 → SEA 12:17AS 603 58m Seattle SEA 13:15 → ANC 15:52AS 1381 7h 34m 69% 45%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 08:01 → SEA 10:50AS 645 49m Seattle SEA 11:39 → ANC 14:27AS 83 7h 26m 28% 18%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON