Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 918 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 918 PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2391 PHX 15:08 → ATL 21:58 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 918 Delta Flight history →	PHX 05:45	ATL 12:28	5%	2%	0.8%	96%
DL 849 Delta	PHX 00:09	ATL 06:44	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 3348 Southwest	PHX 00:04	ATL 06:51	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 901 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:36	ATL 16:20	17%	4%	1.3%	90%
DL 348 Delta Flight history →	PHX 10:14	ATL 17:00	19%	5%	1.1%	83%
DL 1333 Delta	PHX 15:03	ATL 21:47	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 796 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:15	ATL 20:14	20%	6%	0.7%	81%
AA 883 American	PHX 08:42	ATL 15:25	24%	7%	1.8%	no record
WN 4709 Southwest	PHX 09:38	ATL 16:24	25%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 2391 American Flight history →	PHX 15:08	ATL 21:58	34%	13%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON