Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MQ 4019 Envoy	PHX 12:36	CID 17:47	21%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 4195 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 18:55	CID 00:19	23%	5%	1.3%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cedar Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cedar Rapids is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 09m Denver	DEN 10:01 → CID 13:00UA 2742	5h 00m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	3h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 14:55 → CID 16:06DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	7h 21m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 20:56 → CID 22:03DL 2626	9h 49m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	3h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 22:15 → CID 23:26DL 5290 · flown by Endeavor	7h 35m	95%	78%
United Details →	PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597	1h 55m Denver	DEN 13:55 → CID 17:01UA 5677 · flown by SkyWest	5h 53m	95%	68%
United Details →	PHX 13:15 → ORD 18:48UA 1842	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:49 → CID 23:00UA 254	7h 45m	100%	68%
American Details →	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:00 → CID 19:11AA 3798 · flown by Envoy	6h 40m	87%	66%
United Details →	PHX 11:54 → DEN 15:01UA 1615	3h 00m Denver	DEN 18:01 → CID 21:04UA 2324	7h 10m	92%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON