tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 32–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 452 American PHX 15:44 CLE 22:45 32% 10% 1.8% no record
WN 4859 Southwest PHX 13:28 CLE 20:19 36% 8% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 19m Denver DEN 10:11 → CLE 15:12UA 619 6h 12m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 14:17 → CLE 16:03DL 2545 7h 18m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553 3h 46m Minneapolis MSP 15:36 → CLE 18:33DL 1118 8h 48m 99% 77%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 05:22 → DAL 09:49WN 1718 2h 50m Dallas DAL 12:39 → CLE 16:11WN 4885 7h 49m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → PHX 00:10 → EWR 07:46UA 2078 1h 26m Newark EWR 09:12 → CLE 10:55UA 1833 7h 45m 91% 76%
UnitedDetails → PHX 14:01 → IAD 21:13UA 1017 1h 34m Dulles IAD 22:47 → CLE 00:15 +1UA 2131 7h 14m 92% 76%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:20 → SLC 15:58DL 1431 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855 6h 38m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → PHX 09:08 → DEN 12:00UA 597 3h 22m Denver DEN 15:22 → CLE 20:22UA 2476 8h 14m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → PHX 00:00 → BOS 07:58B6 1302 46m Boston BOS 08:44 → CLE 10:52B6 2041 7h 52m 61% 51%
AlaskaDetails → PHX 09:18 → SEA 12:17AS 603 58m Seattle SEA 13:15 → CLE 20:41AS 263 8h 23m 69% 48%
AmericanDetails → PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:03 → CLE 19:48AA 1230 6h 17m 68% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON