Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1537 at 07:54 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1537 PHX 07:54 → CMH 14:34 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 160 PHX 18:24 → CMH 01:07 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1537 Southwest	PHX 07:54	CMH 14:34	15%	3%	2.4%	no record
AA 1399 American	PHX 09:06	CMH 15:56	22%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 1156 American Flight history →	PHX 16:03	CMH 22:53	33%	10%	0.9%	75%
WN 160 Southwest	PHX 18:24	CMH 01:07	38%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON