Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1718 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1718 PHX 05:22 → DAL 09:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 3382 PHX 19:05 → DAL 23:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1718 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 05:22	DAL 09:49	6%	1%	1.3%	94%
WN 1469 Southwest	PHX 08:23	DAL 12:45	20%	3%	2.6%	no record
WN 3375 Southwest	PHX 09:05	DAL 13:34	22%	4%	2.4%	no record
WN 3377 Southwest	PHX 10:50	DAL 15:13	24%	5%	1.7%	no record
WN 1591 Southwest	PHX 11:46	DAL 16:10	26%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 1336 Southwest	PHX 13:13	DAL 17:36	31%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 4708 Southwest	PHX 18:30	DAL 22:59	31%	10%	1.1%	no record
WN 4340 Southwest	PHX 15:04	DAL 19:27	33%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 3382 Southwest	PHX 19:05	DAL 23:29	33%	10%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON