Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 947 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 947 PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2121 PHX 15:56 → DTW 22:55 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 947 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:00	DTW 12:48	7%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1566 Delta Flight history →	PHX 23:04	DTW 05:46	14%	5%	0.9%	77%
DL 1070 Delta Flight history →	PHX 10:55	DTW 17:43	20%	5%	1.2%	85%
AA 1424 American	PHX 08:39	DTW 15:45	22%	6%	1.8%	no record
F9 4392 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 07:31	DTW 14:26	26%	7%	2.4%	67%
DL 785 Delta Flight history →	PHX 15:28	DTW 22:20	31%	10%	0.9%	79%
AA 2121 American Flight history →	PHX 15:56	DTW 22:55	40%	12%	0.9%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON