Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 540 at 11:02 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 540 PHX 11:02 → GEG 14:03 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest WN 3011 PHX 20:54 → GEG 23:36 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 540 American Flight history →	PHX 11:02	GEG 14:03	23%	7%	0.8%	75%
AA 2876 American Flight history →	PHX 20:12	GEG 23:04	32%	10%	0.7%	78%
WN 3011 Southwest	PHX 20:54	GEG 23:36	35%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON