Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 25–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 693 PHX 10:04 → HNL 13:41 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AS 835 PHX 08:43 → HNL 12:26 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 693 American Flight history →	PHX 10:04	HNL 13:41	25%	6%	1.3%	81%
WN 256 Southwest	PHX 09:34	HNL 13:16	26%	5%	1.4%	no record
AS 835 Alaska Flight history →	PHX 08:43	HNL 12:26	29%	6%	1.9%	80%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest	58m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18DL 480	8h 18m	92%	76%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:37 → LAX 12:08DL 4119 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	9h 06m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	PHX 16:02 → LAX 17:34DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	8h 20m	84%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON