tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1873 United Flight history → PHX 08:50 IAD 16:17 17% 4% 1.4% 92%
UA 1017 United Flight history → PHX 14:01 IAD 21:13 21% 6% 0.8% 91%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337 1h 28m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:53UA 2087 6h 53m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:15 → ORD 18:51UA 1842 3h 20m Chicago ORD 22:11 → IAD 01:15 +1UA 1922 9h 00m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 14:37 → IAD 16:31DL 1695 7h 46m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947 2h 20m Detroit DTW 15:08 → IAD 16:41DL 1787 7h 41m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → PHX 16:50 → LAX 18:20AA 1331 3h 28m Los Angeles LAX 21:48 → IAD 05:47 +1AA 3071 9h 57m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → PHX 00:10 → EWR 07:46UA 2078 2h 25m Newark EWR 10:11 → IAD 11:42UA 1618 8h 32m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → PHX 18:59 → DEN 21:54UA 1745 2h 05m Denver DEN 23:59 → IAD 05:27 +1UA 1924 7h 28m 91% 76%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:20 → SLC 15:58DL 1431 1h 32m Salt Lake City SLC 17:30 → IAD 23:29DL 847 7h 09m 93% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274 50m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 6h 29m 71% 54%
UnitedDetails → PHX 10:41 → SFO 12:58UA 2619 52m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → IAD 21:57UA 1791 8h 16m 71% 51%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:15 → ORD 18:51UA 1842 52m Chicago ORD 19:43 → IAD 22:37UA 304 6h 22m 35% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON