Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:43, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 663 American Flight history →	PHX 10:40	KOA 14:06	24%	6%	1.3%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 23m Denver	DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758	12h 37m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	PHX 12:15 → LAX 13:46DL 3951 · flown by SkyWest	2h 58m Los Angeles	LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311	10h 02m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:43 → HNL 12:27AS 835	3h 59m Honolulu	HNL 16:26 → KOA 17:29AS 9950	11h 46m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340	11h 16m	96%	75%
Alaska Details →	PHX 12:44 → SEA 15:34AS 609	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 17:49 → KOA 20:38AS 238	10h 54m	97%	71%
Alaska Details →	PHX 05:56 → SEA 08:52AS 605	1h 06m Seattle	SEA 09:58 → KOA 12:51AS 709	9h 55m	89%	63%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:43 → HNL 12:27AS 835	1h 01m Honolulu	HNL 13:28 → KOA 14:30AS 1128	8h 47m	73%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON