Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, OO 6208 at 20:10, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 6208 SkyWest	PHX 20:10	MAF 00:02	32%	11%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Midland is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PHX 05:22 → DAL 09:49WN 1718	2h 32m Dallas	DAL 12:21 → MAF 13:42WN 1394	6h 20m	100%	81%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 13m Denver	DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	96%	78%
American Details →	PHX 05:10 → DFW 09:45AA 1655	3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → MAF 14:18AA 5621 · flown by PSA	7h 08m	98%	75%
American Details →	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	3h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:13 → MAF 19:34AA 4279 · flown by Envoy	7h 03m	96%	73%
United Details →	PHX 06:10 → IAH 10:52UA 1318	3h 51m Houston	IAH 14:43 → MAF 16:18UA 6322 · flown by Mesa	8h 08m	100%	72%
United Details →	PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373	2h 43m Houston	IAH 19:46 → MAF 21:28UA 6276 · flown by Mesa	7h 08m	94%	69%
United Details →	PHX 16:12 → IAH 20:55UA 2198	1h 07m Houston	IAH 22:02 → MAF 23:42UA 1592	5h 30m	80%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON