Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3417 at 05:19 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3417 PHX 05:19 → MCI 09:57 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 623 PHX 19:32 → MCI 00:13 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3417 Southwest	PHX 05:19	MCI 09:57	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
AA 1635 American	PHX 08:53	MCI 13:41	19%	4%	2.5%	no record
WN 3418 Southwest	PHX 09:24	MCI 14:04	20%	3%	1.7%	no record
WN 1639 Southwest	PHX 21:14	MCI 01:48	29%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3421 Southwest	PHX 13:54	MCI 18:40	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4949 Southwest	PHX 18:58	MCI 23:44	31%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 623 American Flight history →	PHX 19:32	MCI 00:13	33%	9%	1.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON