Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2654 at 21:52 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2654 PHX 21:52 → MIA 05:16 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 330 PHX 12:20 → MIA 19:38 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2654 American Flight history →	PHX 21:52	MIA 05:16	24%	6%	0.9%	80%
AA 1968 American Flight history →	PHX 08:45	MIA 16:11	27%	7%	7.0%	88%worse than usual
AA 3148 American	PHX 16:43	MIA 00:04	32%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 330 American	PHX 12:20	MIA 19:38	35%	9%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON