Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1734 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 38%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1734 American	PHX 08:36	MSN 13:52	23%	6%	2.7%	no record
AA 1835 American Flight history →	PHX 15:47	MSN 21:14	38%	12%	0.9%	74%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 20m Denver	DEN 10:12 → MSN 13:36UA 2368	5h 36m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 15:16 → MSN 16:25DL 2599	8h 40m	98%	74%
American Details →	PHX 00:03 → DCA 07:31AA 1542	3h 03m Washington	DCA 10:34 → MSN 12:05AA 5373 · flown by PSA	10h 02m	100%	71%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274	2h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 21:59 → MSN 23:00DL 1599	7h 09m	95%	68%
American Details →	PHX 05:00 → CLT 12:09AA 3009	2h 49m Charlotte	CLT 14:58 → MSN 16:13AA 3125	9h 13m	99%	67%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796	1h 18m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	7h 23m	86%	65%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:42 → MSP 14:45DL 1047	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 16:57 → MSN 18:09DL 5331 · flown by Endeavor	6h 27m	97%	63%
United Details →	PHX 13:15 → ORD 18:51UA 1842	2h 33m Chicago	ORD 21:24 → MSN 22:25UA 1251	7h 10m	91%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHX 13:15 → ORD 18:51UA 1842	54m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → MSN 20:46UA 630	5h 31m	47%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON