Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3434 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 3434 PHX 05:09 → OAK 07:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2959 PHX 20:39 → OAK 22:43 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3434 Southwest	PHX 05:09	OAK 07:11	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 3435 Southwest	PHX 08:11	OAK 10:13	17%	3%	1.7%	no record
WN 678 Southwest	PHX 11:06	OAK 13:09	22%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 679 Southwest	PHX 15:49	OAK 17:59	31%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4951 Southwest	PHX 22:39	OAK 00:44	31%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 2959 Southwest	PHX 20:39	OAK 22:43	35%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON