Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 645 American Flight history →	PHX 11:03	OGG 14:32	22%	7%	0.8%	87%
WN 3166 Southwest	PHX 09:35	OGG 13:07	28%	7%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHX 11:12 → SFO 13:15UA 2619	3h 25m San Francisco	SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749	11h 05m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	PHX 09:19 → SEA 12:30DL 2374	2h 29m Seattle	SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344	11h 37m	98%	82%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	3h 08m Denver	DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736	12h 05m	99%	82%
Alaska Details →	PHX 12:44 → SEA 15:34AS 609	3h 25m Seattle	SEA 18:59 → OGG 22:07AS 202	12h 23m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → LAX 07:32DL 4057 · flown by SkyWest	58m Los Angeles	LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425	8h 07m	91%	77%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:43 → HNL 12:27AS 835	3h 33m Honolulu	HNL 16:00 → OGG 16:53AS 1436	11h 10m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 53m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	11h 08m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	PHX 08:01 → SEA 10:51AS 645	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	11h 58m	97%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHX 11:12 → SFO 13:15UA 2619	50m San Francisco	SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623	8h 24m	64%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON