Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1919 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1919 PHX 07:50 → ONT 09:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1734 PHX 20:09 → ONT 21:33 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1919 Southwest	PHX 07:50	ONT 09:14	9%	2%	3.1%	no record
MQ 4171 Envoy	PHX 07:46	ONT 09:12	15%	4%	3.8%	no record
WN 1274 Southwest	PHX 10:07	ONT 11:31	15%	3%	1.6%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	PHX 10:46	ONT 12:18	19%	7%	1.8%	83%
WN 235 Southwest	PHX 14:29	ONT 15:53	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2859 American Flight history →	PHX 14:03	ONT 15:32	22%	7%	0.7%	85%
AA 1666 American Flight history →	PHX 17:14	ONT 18:41	28%	9%	0.7%	78%
AA 1238 American Flight history →	PHX 21:31	ONT 22:58	31%	9%	0.7%	71%
WN 2968 Southwest	PHX 22:34	ONT 23:57	32%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 1734 Southwest	PHX 20:09	ONT 21:33	33%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON