Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 31–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 793 Southwest	PHX 16:54	PIT 23:53	31%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 2871 American Flight history →	PHX 15:46	PIT 22:51	32%	9%	0.6%	78%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → DTW 12:48DL 947	1h 32m Detroit	DTW 14:20 → PIT 15:32DL 4640 · flown by Endeavor	6h 32m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:00 → SLC 08:37DL 1535	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → PIT 16:30DL 1188	7h 30m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	PHX 05:45 → ATL 12:28DL 918	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 14:51 → PIT 16:36DL 1568	7h 51m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 23:04 → PIT 00:50 +1DL 1351	8h 35m	96%	82%
United Details →	PHX 06:00 → DEN 08:52UA 337	1h 13m Denver	DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308	6h 16m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50DL 2553	1h 47m Minneapolis	MSP 13:37 → PIT 16:40DL 4971 · flown by Endeavor	6h 55m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	PHX 10:14 → ATL 17:00DL 348	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → PIT 21:39DL 2583	8h 25m	97%	78%
American Details →	PHX 00:03 → DCA 07:31AA 1542	1h 16m Washington	DCA 08:47 → PIT 10:04AA 4446 · flown by Republic	7h 01m	89%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PHX 12:20 → IAH 17:03UA 1373	56m Houston	IAH 17:59 → PIT 21:41UA 2757	6h 21m	73%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON