Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4486 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 4486 PHX 07:01 → SAN 08:23 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 559 PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4486 Southwest	PHX 07:01	SAN 08:23	11%	3%	3.3%	no record
AA 2226 American	PHX 07:43	SAN 09:09	18%	7%	2.5%	no record
WN 3742 Southwest	PHX 08:49	SAN 10:12	22%	4%	2.5%	no record
WN 1434 Southwest	PHX 10:31	SAN 11:51	26%	6%	1.8%	no record
OO 3144 SkyWest	PHX 10:50	SAN 12:28	26%	11%	2.6%	no record
QX 2089 Horizon	PHX 08:36	SAN 10:00	28%	5%	3.0%	no record
AA 1851 American	PHX 11:02	SAN 12:29	28%	8%	1.0%	no record
WN 652 Southwest	PHX 11:48	SAN 13:11	29%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 1951 American Flight history →	PHX 14:08	SAN 15:34	30%	8%	0.8%	68%
WN 4912 Southwest	PHX 14:54	SAN 16:16	31%	8%	0.8%	no record
OO 3310 SkyWest	PHX 16:06	SAN 17:32	31%	10%	2.2%	no record
WN 385 Southwest	PHX 13:29	SAN 14:52	32%	7%	0.9%	no record
F9 1571 Frontier Flight history →	PHX 09:01	SAN 10:30	32%	12%	2.5%	78%
QX 2187 Horizon	PHX 19:24	SAN 20:49	32%	7%	2.4%	no record
WN 9002 Southwest	PHX 13:37	SAN 14:59	33%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 2921 Southwest	PHX 22:49	SAN 00:11	33%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 1862 American	PHX 17:03	SAN 18:32	33%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3481 Southwest	PHX 21:54	SAN 23:17	33%	10%	0.9%	no record
WN 2395 Southwest	PHX 16:44	SAN 18:06	35%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 2235 Southwest	PHX 17:54	SAN 19:17	36%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 559 American Flight history →	PHX 20:20	SAN 21:34	41%	10%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON