Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2758 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2758 PHX 05:09 → STL 10:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 890 PHX 15:47 → STL 20:57 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2758 Southwest	PHX 05:09	STL 10:08	6%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1452 Southwest	PHX 07:44	STL 12:47	11%	2%	2.2%	no record
AA 590 American Flight history →	PHX 08:37	STL 13:59	17%	5%	2.0%	83%
WN 133 Southwest	PHX 12:49	STL 17:50	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 3493 Southwest	PHX 20:16	STL 01:18	31%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 3492 Southwest	PHX 18:29	STL 23:30	31%	10%	0.6%	no record
AA 890 American Flight history →	PHX 15:47	STL 20:57	34%	10%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON