Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 3649 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3649 PHX 07:17 → TUS 08:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 6514 PHX 19:07 → TUS 19:58 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3649 Envoy	PHX 07:17	TUS 08:14	13%	3%	3.5%	no record
WN 3496 Southwest	PHX 07:44	TUS 08:41	14%	3%	2.2%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 12:37	TUS 13:38	16%	4%	1.8%	90%
AA 3319 American	PHX 10:10	TUS 11:07	21%	7%	3.2%	no record
AA 1559 American	PHX 09:42	TUS 10:42	21%	7%	3.9%	no record
OO 6294 SkyWest	PHX 13:30	TUS 14:28	25%	9%	1.3%	no record
OO 6205 SkyWest	PHX 16:54	TUS 17:52	26%	8%	1.6%	no record
AA 6309 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:46	TUS 21:45	29%	11%	0.9%	68%
AA 3257 American	PHX 15:50	TUS 16:47	29%	9%	1.6%	no record
WN 1439 Southwest	PHX 22:44	TUS 23:55	30%	12%	0.7%	no record
OO 6514 SkyWest	PHX 19:07	TUS 19:58	30%	11%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON