Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 3679 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 3679 PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest G7 4495 PIT 15:22 → IAD 16:47 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3679 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:06	IAD 07:18	4%	1%	0.7%	97%
G7 4593 GoJet	PIT 10:24	IAD 11:32	12%	3%	1.1%	no record
YX 3541 Republic	PIT 19:55	IAD 21:10	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
G7 4495 GoJet	PIT 15:22	IAD 16:47	16%	4%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON