Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 3678 at 05:08 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–46%.

Safest bet that day YX 3678 PIT 05:08 → ORD 05:55 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 602 PIT 18:01 → ORD 18:46 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3678 Republic	PIT 05:08	ORD 05:55	8%	4%	1.3%	no record
AA 2097 American	PIT 06:00	ORD 06:41	13%	8%	1.7%	no record
UA 1803 United Flight history →	PIT 06:54	ORD 07:34	15%	6%	1.4%	89%
UA 3461 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 09:00	ORD 09:54	17%	6%	1.1%	89%
AA 4525 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 09:59	ORD 10:46	17%	6%	1.1%	79%
UA 455 United Flight history →	PIT 10:54	ORD 11:42	18%	10%	1.2%	90%
AA 1819 American	PIT 20:39	ORD 21:27	34%	16%	1.8%	no record
YX 4479 Republic	PIT 13:13	ORD 14:01	37%	15%	4.3%	no record
UA 3577 United flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 16:08	ORD 16:55	40%	16%	2.7%	88%worse than usual
UA 2180 United Flight history →	PIT 14:10	ORD 14:55	40%	19%	2.2%	75%worse than usual
UA 6023 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PIT 19:47	ORD 20:26	42%	20%	2.9%	75%worse than usual
AA 969 American	PIT 15:53	ORD 16:38	45%	19%	2.3%	no record
UA 602 United Flight history →	PIT 18:01	ORD 18:46	46%	22%	1.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON