tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:06, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1885 American Flight history → PIT 07:50 PHX 09:25 18% 5% 1.0% 91%
WN 3481 Southwest PIT 19:49 PHX 21:19 26% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:06 → IAD 07:18UA 3679 · flown by Republic 1h 27m Dulles IAD 08:45 → PHX 10:36UA 709 7h 30m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PIT 17:40 → SLC 19:49DL 1188 2h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 8h 51m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → PIT 06:06 → DTW 07:20DL 5319 · flown by Endeavor 1h 15m Detroit DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070 6h 38m 94% 78%
DeltaDetails → PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 9h 18m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → PIT 05:04 → CLT 06:40AA 376 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 09:41 → PHX 11:04AA 1986 9h 00m 100% 76%
DeltaDetails → PIT 07:52 → ATL 09:40DL 1383 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 26m 99% 74%
AmericanDetails → PIT 08:22 → PHL 09:56AA 3248 3h 03m Philadelphia PHL 12:59 → PHX 15:19AA 765 9h 57m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → PIT 06:15 → IAH 08:18UA 1859 1h 44m Houston IAH 10:02 → PHX 10:54UA 1895 7h 39m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PIT 15:43 → DFW 17:41AA 2664 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:38 → PHX 19:15AA 2047 6h 32m 73% 44%
UnitedDetails → PIT 14:10 → ORD 14:55UA 2180 1h 07m Chicago ORD 16:02 → PHX 17:51UA 2015 6h 41m 64% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON