Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5548 at 05:22 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 5548 PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OH 5617 PNS 16:46 → CLT 19:32 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5548 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 05:22	CLT 08:18	10%	6%	2.0%	92%
AA 3215 American	PNS 07:06	CLT 09:50	17%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 2476 American	PNS 10:56	CLT 13:44	17%	6%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3570 Envoy	PNS 13:12	CLT 15:37	21%	4%	1.0%	no record
OH 5617 PSA	PNS 16:46	CLT 19:32	29%	10%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON