Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5424 PNS 06:35 → DCA 09:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest OH 5139 PNS 17:46 → DCA 21:19 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5424 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 06:35	DCA 09:41	22%	8%	3.2%	84%
AA 5599 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PNS 11:33	DCA 14:36	30%	12%	2.6%	87%worse than usual
OH 5139 PSA	PNS 17:46	DCA 21:19	31%	20%	3.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON