Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 5156 at 12:27, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5156 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	PNS 12:27	LGA 16:05	29%	21%	4.8%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	5h 42m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 50m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	6h 49m	99%	67%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 11:44 → LGA 13:44AA 2796	7h 22m	96%	62%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	6h 28m	98%	58%
American Details →	PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49AA 3386 · flown by Envoy	1h 25m Miami	MIA 10:14 → LGA 13:09AA 2424	6h 09m	94%	57%
United Details →	PNS 07:00 → IAH 08:42UA 1823	1h 05m Houston	IAH 09:47 → LGA 14:29UA 678	6h 29m	91%	56%
Delta Details →	PNS 16:18 → ATL 18:35DL 1013	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 21:29 → LGA 23:36DL 520	6h 18m	96%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PNS 16:04 → DFW 18:07AA 2328	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:00 → LGA 23:24AA 1375	6h 20m	59%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON