Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: MX 1559 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


MX 1559 Breeze	PNS 08:55	MCO 11:33	14%	5%	2.3%	no record
F9 4662 Frontier Flight history →	PNS 14:05	MCO 16:33	30%	12%	1.6%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 1 h ahead of Pensacola). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PNS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3019	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	6h 00m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	PNS 07:00 → ATL 09:17DL 3129	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:52 → MCO 14:22DL 1576	6h 22m	99%	78%
American Details →	PNS 05:22 → CLT 08:18AA 5548 · flown by PSA	2h 38m Charlotte	CLT 10:56 → MCO 12:37AA 1576	6h 15m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	PNS 08:01 → ATL 10:15DL 3067	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → MCO 15:25DL 1372	6h 24m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	PNS 09:22 → ATL 11:35DL 3103	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	6h 18m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:51 → MCO 00:21 +1DL 1162	5h 13m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	PNS 11:57 → ATL 14:14DL 3198	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	6h 51m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	PNS 13:32 → ATL 15:48DL 1640	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → MCO 20:35DL 2881	6h 03m	98%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON