Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 3386 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 3386 PNS 06:00 → MIA 08:49 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3749 PNS 15:03 → MIA 17:47 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3386 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 06:00	MIA 08:49	12%	4%	1.3%	87%
AA 3719 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 19:15	MIA 22:10	23%	7%	2.0%	87%worse than usual
AA 3749 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PNS 15:03	MIA 17:47	31%	7%	2.7%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON